Tobacco Road Report

Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Division: Atlantic
2005-2006 Results: 20-10 Overall, 9-7 Conference
Head Coach: Leonard Hamilton
Record at Florida State: 65-58 (.528), 4 seasons
Record Overall: 265-268 (.497), 18 seasons

Last Year in Review
Florida State as usual was the most confusing team in the conference. The team upset Duke in Tallahassee and gave the upset away in Durham by 1 point. The team had a winning record in conference play and appeared poised to make the NCAA tournament. However, a disappointing loss to Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC Tournament put FSU squarely on the bubble and eventually NIT bound. In NIT play, FSU beat Butler in the first round and then lost to NIT powerhouse South Carolina in the second round. In retrospect, it seems that FSU is one more consistent scorer away from finally getting over the hump.

FSU was led by the talented duo of Al Thornton and Alexander Johnson. Thornton led the team in scoring at 16.3 points per contest and also added 6.9 rebounds per game. Johnson, a TRR favorite, averaged 13.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1 bpg, and 1 spg. The third scorer on the team was shooting guard, Jason Rich, at 10.0 ppg. Statistically, FSU played like a typical Leonard Hamilton team with an emphasis on the defensive end and transition basketball.

The team forced 262 steals and allowed opponents to shoot only 43% from the floor. In turn, FSU shot almost 48% from the floor and outrebounded opponents by 2 per game. The problem with the Seminoles was in handling the ball. The team committed 16 turnovers per game in league play. Point guard play was at issue as well as the team had no player average over 4 assists per game in league play.

The team shows flashes of brilliance which has to frustrate fans of the program.

Outlook
The Seminoles should be in the NCAA tournament in 2006-2007 season if team chemistry is in place. The team will return three starters (Thornton, Isiah Swann, and Rich) and most of the bench from last season. The key loss will be Alexander Johnson which will require someone to step up in the post. The key addition will be ball distributor, Tony Douglas, to run the point. The former Auburn Tiger will likely resolve the efficiency issues the team has shown at the point position in previous seasons. Thornton should be first team All-ACC and if he shows as much improvement as last season, could be an All-American candidate. The critical issue for FSU will be the post.

The hope is that sophomores, Casaan Breeden (SF, 6’ 7”) and Uche Echefu (C, 6’ 9”), can provide an anchor down low. TRR is a little skeptical that Breeden and Echefu have enough size to prevent teams from exploiting the Noles in the paint.

What do we expect from the Seminoles?
The quality of the Noles will be on display in three consecutive games before the conference schedule begins. FSU will play at Pittsburgh, at Wisconsin, and in Tallahassee against Florida in a three game stretch. The team only plays Duke and UNC once this season which should help solidify an NCAA bid. Our guess is that quality post players will have success against FSU and the team will need a consistent second scoring option to avoid putting the whole burden on Al Thornton.

Under Hamilton, the Seminoles will always play solid half court defense. With stability at the point provided by Douglas and sufficient post play from Breeden/Echefu, the Noles will be a top 20 team most of the season. TRR still sees the conference as UNC and then a strong fight for second.