Tobacco Road Report

For those on Tobacco Road who like teams that are efficient on offense, rebound with passion, and who make teams earn every point, Wednesday night’s Big 10 showdown between Wisconsin and Indiana was must-see TV. The Hoosiers took the Badgers to the woodshed and now has a legitimate shot to take second in conference. We're confident the Hooser faithful at Nick's were more than pleased.

Wisconsin entered the game with a 17 game winning streak, and the only loss for the Badgers came early in the season against Missouri State on a neutral court. The Hoosiers needed this game to stay in contact with the top two teams in conference, Wisconsin and Ohio State. With the unbalanced Big 10 schedule, the Hoosiers only play Wisconsin and Ohio State once this year, so a loss would leave them playing for third place.

Both teams opened in their trademark man-to-man defense. Wisconsin’s approach is to play behind the post and use their length to affect shots, while the smaller Hoosiers front the post and challenge you to throw over the top. In the early minutes, both teams felt each other out and probed the defense. Indiana was trying to play through DJ White, while Wisconsin was finding Alando Tucker in space. For readers who have not seen Tucker play, he is probably the best small forward in the country from 15 feet and in. He, like the other Badgers, is also able to get to the foul line often.

Coach Sampson for Indiana recognized this disadvantage for the Hoosiers and played a good bit of 2-3 zone on Wednesday. TRR would guess this is the most zone defense played by an Indiana team at Assembly Hall since Sputnik, as Bobby Knight was never even one to teach it in practice.

The zone worked for the Hoosiers as Wisconsin shot more three pointers than their usual amount and, while Tucker got his points (23), Indiana used Wisconsin’s weakness against them. On the Badger side, Bo Ryan changed his defense in the second half to counter DJ White. The Badgers began to front the post with Marcus Landry, so Indiana turned to its guards to make the difference. With the Hoosiers, it usually is a different guard every night providing the lift, and this time it was junior AJ Ratliff. Ratliff scored 18 in the second half to give Indiana a hard-fought win.

Scouting Reports for Indiana and Wisconsin

Wisconsin
At first glance it’s easy to think the Badgers are over-rated. While they don’t win style points on Sports Center, their efficiency is impressive. The Badger defense yields only 0.93 points per possession, while their offense cranks out 1.06. Teams that take them for granted in March will be surprised.

The offense is motion with baseline picks for Tucker. Tucker likes to catch the ball 15 feet and in as he finishes as well as anyone in the country. Most players ignore the mid-range game, but not Tucker. In many ways he’s a throw-back player.

Wisconsin does not shoot many three pointers as the rest of the guards also have solid mid-range games. Michael Flowers and Kamron Taylor can provide scoring support as needed. On the post, the Wisconsin bigs are not dominant, but will finish if teams focus too much on Tucker. The team averages 62 possessions per game, so expect the shot clock to run until the Badgers find the right opportunity. The Badgers do not turn the ball over often.

On defense the Badgers prefer to play man-to-man and often play behind the post. They are not a team that overplays passing lanes, but they still find ways to generate turnovers. The team does not press, and the guards do not attack the offensive boards. They excel in getting back to defend against the fast break, making opponents attack a stingy half-court defense.

We think they are the best team in the Big 10 and a legit Final Four candidate (emphasis on team, not simply talent). Teams that cannot play Wisconsin’s tempo will struggle with the Badgers, as they will not let you play yours. We would love to see a Memphis or Tennessee play Wisconsin to see if they have the discipline to adjust. In the end, Wisconsin may not have enough firepower to reach Atlanta, but they will not beat themselves.

Indiana
Indiana is starting to appear on the national radar screen, and Sampson’s Hoosiers have two features of a team that can go deep in March: stingy defense (1.01 points per possession) and a cast of deep threats from the outside (55.2 percent effective field goal percentage). TRR has enjoyed watching the development of the Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers run motion through set plays. Much of the offense begins with a high pick set for a wing or the point by one of the bigs. Indiana likes to run the offense through DJ White on the post and surround him with shooters. Teams have to pick their poison as Indiana shoots at a 40 percent clip from the arc. Lately, the Hoosiers have begun to show the ability to drive the basketball to the hoop which will only add to their efficient offense (1.15 points per possession). We do think the backcourt, however, is made up more of scorers than shooters, so the offense can have some off nights like it did against Illinois.

The Hoosiers like to play man-to-man, fronting the post, and overplaying the wing. Sampson is flexible and will employ a 2-3 or 1-3-1 zone if the situation calls for a change. Indiana is small and not overly athletic so athletic teams can exploit them on occasion as Ohio State did. Finally, Indiana likes to double the post against scoring bigs and rotates extremely well. Their 3 point FG percent allowed is among the lowest in the country.

We believe that Indiana will start appearing on “sleeper” lists very soon, though a team on pace to finish second in conference should hardly be considered a sleeper. They remind us of Georgia from the SEC with their one good post player and use of the deep ball. They differ from Georgia in their efficiency and we think they may be able to play a few games in the tourney. If DJ White returns for his senior season—and we note IF—we will go ahead and put the Hoosiers in our pre-season top 10 for 2008.