Tobacco Road Report

1. NORTH CAROLINA. Roy Williams and company simply have too much firepower. The key will be getting the youth up to speed. Ellington, Wright, and Lawson surrounding ACC MVP Hansbrough will be too much for opponents to handle.

Postseason destination: NCAA final four or better.

2. GEORGIA TECH. Surprise pick here, but Hewitt has three first year players that will rival the UNC trio. Thaddeous Young is the obvious star, but watch out for Mohammad Faye. TRR believes that Dickey and Smith are poised to dominate down low.

Postseason destination: NCAA sweet-16 or better.

3. DUKE. They drop here because of the Paulus injury, but don’t fall further due to pedigree and a history of recruiting and developing talent. Major question: who will step up to replace Redick’s numbers?

Postseason destination: NCAA sweet-16 or better.

4. BOSTON COLLEGE. They place fourth since TRR suspects the suspensions this week indicate trouble at Chestnut Hill. Questions: who will fill Craig Smith’s shoes? And who will provide the leadership?

Postseason destination: NCAA berth.

5. FLORIDA STATE. We believe Douglas brings stability to the backcourt and Thornton elevates his game substantially. Hamilton’s focus on defense should begin to pay dividends.

Postseason destination: NCAA berth.

6. VIRGINIA TECH. Senior led team…and due for some good fortune. Playing up to potential could lead to the big dance.

Postseason destination: NCAA berth.

7. VIRGINIA. They have the pieces and a new home court. Will it add to something good? They’ll rely on their superior backcourt to cover the lack of depth up front. If Virginia Tech slips, Virginia should be ready to step into the big dance. If not, they have the talent to go deep into the NIT.

Postseason destination: NIT finals. It will be tough enough for the ACC to place six in the NCAA tournament.

8. MARYLAND. Youthful team, and youth means youthful mistakes. Could easily move up in the standings, but we think they are a year away.

Postseason destination: NIT semi-finals.

9. CLEMSON. Where’s the beef? And no, we don’t mean Dave Thomas. Clemson will struggle in the paint.

Postseason destination: NIT bid.

10. MIAMI. Rebuilding without Hite and Diaz.

Postseason destination: NIT bid.

11. NC STATE. The early entry of Simmons leaves a big void. Lowe has his hands full.

Postseason destination: none.

12. WAKE FOREST. Down this year but watch out in 2008.

Postseason destination: none.

Overall, TRR is forecasting 6 NCAA tournament bids and 4 NIT berths. This would represent an increase in NCAA tourney bids over last year. Call us cautiously optimistic in that regard.

North Carolina should represent the conference in the final four. We’re high on Georgia Tech’s youth and athleticism. The AP Preseason rankings are not so high on the Yellow Jackets, and the voters may be taking a wait-and-see attitude. We’ve seen enough.

There are three teams – Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Virginia – with legitimate NCAA hopes and talent to get there, but one or two may be left standing when the music stops. Fortunately for these teams, they’re laden with upperclassmen and have solid experience. If the ACC wants the mantle of top conference in the country, these teams will be the difference makers.