Tobacco Road Report

By Chris and Michael

Virginia Tech (7-3, 1-0) used a 13-2 run midway through the second half to open their ACC schedule with a hard-fought 63-60 win over visiting Wake Forest (5-4, 0-1). Wake Forest had an edge in several categories, namely shooting percentage and rebounding, but ultimately lost the game by turning the ball over too many times and by failing to get to the foul line as often as the Hokies.

The game was a perfect illustration of the strength and weakness of each club. Wake Forest could score inside with Kyle Visser (18 points, 9 boards), but struggled at the wings and couldn’t hit the outside shot consistently. Virginia Tech was weak inside, but was able to get points from their guard play, often on broken offense and penetration. The Hokies were led by Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon with 14 points each.

Examining the tempo-free statistics for the game, Virginia Tech scored 0.95 points per possession, while Wake Forest scored 0.90 points per possession. Our thinking is that these numbers are not strong enough for success in league play.

For such a guard driven offense, the Hokies only registered an assist to possession ratio of 0.17, or 17 percent. This number above all others describes the Tech offense at this point of the season. With the absence of a post threat, Hokie guards are left to create their own shots. Fortunately for Tech, the team only committed turnovers on 13 percent of their possessions. With erratic post play and low points per possession, they have little margin for error.

For Wake Forest, we are amazed at the effectiveness of Visser without support play from the wings. As opposed to Wake’s loss earlier in the week against DePaul, the offense did go to Visser early on, but a series of Virginia Tech defenders wore him down through the course of the game. Visser continues to fight double teams—and sometimes triple teams—but the offense doesn’t capitalize on kick-outs and ball reversal. Skip also continues to use Visser in the high pick-and-roll, which is useless in our opinion. Taking the only offensive threat 20 feet away from the bucket makes little sense.

The biggest disappointment for Wake has to be the second poor outing in a row for Ishmael Smith. In 16 minutes of play, he collected 1 assist and 2 turnovers to go with his 5 fouls. Overall, Wake had 9 assists versus 14 turnovers, or a turnover ratio of 21 percent on a possession basis. This is to be expected with a young backcourt.

Where do we see each club as we enter the new year? For Wake, it is clearly a rebuilding year. Prosser has some good young players, but they lack the seasoning to challenge the conference elite. Any notion of the “Speed Demons” should be squelched immediately in favor of a possession limiting offense that runs through Visser in the post. Our prediction for 11th in conference play seems accurate.

For Virginia Tech, we are disappointed by their start and we think it’s time to worry. Kyle Visser is a solid player, but more talented post players are found at Duke and UNC. Virginia Tech must find a consistent low post scorer as their guards will not outplay most of the conference.

Frankly, we were expecting more from Coleman Collins by now and we’re puzzled at his lack of production at only 7 points and 4 rebounds per game. He’s only hit double digit rebounds once and doesn’t play with the requisite energy. Our prediction of a top half finish seems a little high and we feel that Virginia Tech probably will challenge Clemson and NC State for the places above Wake Forest in the standings.