Tobacco Road Report

By Michael

It was groundhog day as turnovers killed Duke again (TRR is absolutely sick of writing this about the Blue Devils). VCU used its pressure defense to get 13 steals and force 17 Duke turnovers and the Rams turned these extra possessions into points. Duke's string of 9 consecutive sweet-16 finishes is now over. The Rams advance to play Pittsburgh.

As TRR noted in its preview for this game, the turnover margin would be key. The Rams thrive on creating turnovers since they're long and athletic in the backcourt and relatively thin in the frontcourt. A matchup with Duke, a team that has more turnovers than assists on the season, was therefore a very interesting matchup in the first round.

The game was 40-38 in favor of Duke at the half after three consecutive three-point bombs by the Rams closed the gap in the last 3 minutes before intermission. It was clear that Duke held the advantage in the half court set where it could get the ball to McRoberts and pound the offensive glass. McRoberts would finish with 22 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 blocks in one of his best all-around performances this year while Duke as a team grabbed 18 offensive rebounds, or a remarkable 51 percent of their misses.

Yet during a few stretches in the first half, VCU was able to tire out Paulus, create a few turnovers, and bomb away from three. The Rams would finish 9-16 from deep and used the arc to make runs at the Blue Devils all night.

In the second half, VCU hit back to back three pointers to close the Duke lead to 64-58 with 9:15 to play. CBS flashed some turnover stats at this point which showed Duke with 13 turnovers to VCU's 10 at this stage of the game. TRR promptly scribbled in his notepad, "Only a net-gain of three possessions for the Rams. Not enough of a margin. VCU needs to force 18 or more turnovers to have a chance in this one."

VCU may want to request this "magic pen" from TRR. As soon as I finished writing that, the turnovers started to mount and the three-ball kept dropping. Two more three point bombs closed Duke's lead to one point at the 6:16 mark. With 1:53 left and the score 72-71 in favor of VCU, Duke had committed 17 turnovers. VCU would finish with 11.

With two minutes remaining, it was now anybody's game. Just the position Ram head coach Anthony Grant wanted.

The teams traded baskets until Maynor said, "enough of this." TRR loves it when a player steps up during crunch time and makes a play with confidence. Maynor's 17-footer over Scheyer with 1.8 seconds remaining will be on the highlight films for years. A great basketball moment. Maynor finished with 22 points, 8 assists, and 3 steals and was the best guard on the floor all evening.

Finally, as TRR has also said several times, when Paulus scores big the Dukies lose. While the announcers were gushing over Paulus's "brilliant" performance they neglected to understand that this gentleman scores points when the rest of the offense has broken down. The point guard in Coach K's system is a distributor, not a scorer. It's a symptom of a larger problem when Coach K resorts to high pick-and-rolls to get Paulus a look from three.

What more is there to say? VCU forced opponents into turnovers on 24 percent of their possessions during the regular season. Duke's 17 turnovers on 71 possessions meant a turnover on 24 percent of their possessions. Tempo-free stats don't lie and that's why we use them at TRR.