Tobacco Road Report

TRR provides a brief rundown of the opening day matchups in the ACC Tournament. We will offer more detailed analysis as we get to the quarterfinal rounds on Friday.

Game 1: Florida State (19-11, 7-9) vs. Clemson (21-9, 7-9) Time: 12:00 pm

Regular Season Results:
1/3 Clemson 68, Florida State 66
2/7 Clemson 71, Florida State 58

Trends:
Clemson: 3-7 over last 10 games
Florida State: 5-5 over last 10 games

TRR Pick:
Many are labeling this an elimination game for the NCAA tourney. Clemson swept the Noles in the regular season in games where the Tigers played their most efficient of the season. The Tigers were above their season average in points per possession and below their season average in points allowed per possession. The result was a last second victory in Tallahassee and a blow out win at Littlejohn. For the record, Toney Douglas did not play in the second contest. He is back for the tourney. Over the last two games, the Noles offense is starting to click (1.18 and 1.24 points/possession), and we see Thornton carrying the load. Three victories over the same team in one year when the talent levels are close is not likely. A loss will probably eliminate either team from the NCAA dance, but we are not sure one win will be enough either.

Florida State 66, Clemson 60

Game 2: Miami (11-19, 4-12) vs. Maryland (24-7, 10-6) Time: 2:00 pm

Regular Season Results:
1/10 Miami 63, Maryland 58

Trends:
Maryland: 8-2 over last 10 games
Miami: 2-8 over last 10 games

TRR Pick:
Don’t let the regular season matchup fool you. In that odd game, Maryland shot an effective field goal of 27%. This will not happen on Thursday. As the old saying goes, payback’s a…………………

Maryland 88, Miami 65

Game 3: NC State (15-14, 5-11) vs. Duke (22-9, 8-8) Time: 7:00 pm

Regular Season Results:
1/20 Duke 79, NC State 56

Trends:
NC State: 4-6 over last ten games
Duke: 4-6 over last ten games

TRR Pick:
This is an interesting matchup as the two teams played before Atsur was healthy for NC State. Duke already lacks depth this season, so the loss of Henderson will hurt. NC State plays essentially six players as well, so don’t expect many subs. NC State has not won any conference games where it shot below 55% EFG, so we think this game comes down to Atsur and how well he can break down the Dukies off the dribble. Can he provide space for Costner and Fells to deliver from the outside? Can NC State match the intensity of Duke? We think they can, but Coach K will find a way.

Duke 70, NC State 64

Game 4: Wake Forest (14-15, 5-11) vs. Georgia Tech (20-10, 8-8) Time: 9:00 pm

Regular Season Results:
1/30 Wake 85, Tech 74
2/21 Tech 75, Wake 61

Trends:
Wake: 5-5 over last 10 games.
Georgia Tech: 7-3 over last 10 games.

TRR Pick:
With Tech’s defense playing at a high level, we can’t see the Deacons pulling the upset. In the last 8 conference games, Tech only allowed greater than 1.05 points per possession once and outrebounded all opponents. Wake’s trouble on the offensive end (0.93 points per possession) will be exploited and their best chance is to get to the foul line through Visser. Tech is not completely in the NCAA clear, so no chance of a let down here.

Georgia Tech 74, Wake Forest 63