Tobacco Road Report

UNFINISHED BUSINESS…….
Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Division: Coastal
2006-2007 Results: 31-7 Overall, 11-5 Conference
NCAA Regional Finalist, ACC Regular Season Champion, ACC Tournament Champion
Head Coach: Roy Williams
Record Overall: 524-131 (.799), 19 seasons
Record at UNC: 106-30 (.765), 4 seasons

Last Year in Review
Tar Heel fans will probably remember the 2007 season with mixed feelings. With a stacked roster, the Tar Heels dominated ACC play and made a deep run in the NCAA tourney. As the #1 national seed, the Tar Heels went ICE cold in the second half against Georgetown and finished the season as a regional finalist.

The 2006-2007 season began featured early wins over Tennessee, Ohio State, Winthrop, and Kentucky. In conference play, the Heels were dominant at times, uninterested at others. In early January, the Heels lost a close one at seasoned Virginia Tech, but then blistered Clemson four days later. In February, the Heels lost a close one at NC State, and then easily handled the Blue Devils in their following game. Leading up to the NCAA tourney, the Heels looked like a champion, easily winning the ACC Tourney and having no real close calls into the Elite Eight. At the end of the day, youth finally got the Heels as Georgetown’s pressure defense made the Heels a jump shooting team in the second half and the shots would not go down.

Outlook
Last year, we predicted UNC would dominate the ACC and make a deep run in March. Indeed, the Heels were better than advertised with Coach Williams doing a great coaching job managing a portfolio of great talent. First, let’s look at who has left via the NBA or graduation. The two main losses to overcome will be Brandan Wright (14.7 pts, 1.8 blocks) and Reyshawn Terry (9.7 pts, 5.4 rbs). Wright was a force on the blocks and Terry was top defender on the UNC roster. UNC can likely generate offense to replace their contributions, but someone will have to step up defensively. Now let’s look at the key players on the roster: With Tyler Hansbrough (18.4 pts, 7.9 rbs), UNC has the premier post player in the conference. Hansbrough averaged 30 minutes per contest last season, and gives UNC a weapon in any style of tempo. The second post position will be a new starter, likely Deon Thompson or Alex Stepheson. Both players showed glimpses last year of outstanding play. The backcourt will be one of the strongest in the nation with Ty Lawson (10.2 pts, 5.6 asts) at the PG and Wayne Ellington (11.7 pts, 66 3-pt FGs) at the SG. Ellington was a role player last year, but his offensive talent will be needed this year to offset the key personnel losses. Bobby Frasor will once again be a solid backup at the guard position. At the SF position, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard will compete for the starting position.

How will UNC work on offense? With Hansbrough’s ability to play with his back to the basket as well as face up and score, there are many possibilities in William’s motion sets. Expect the Tar Heels to also emphasize early offense and tempo to utilize their depth. We expect UNC to continue their domination from the foul line. Last year, UNC made 3 less free throws than their opponents ATTEMPTED. Our guess is that Ellington and Lawson will be vastly improved, giving the Heels a balanced high-powered offense. That said, the lack of a consistent three-point threat allowed opposing defenses to pack it in at times.

The possible weakness in the UNC team will be on the defensive end. Simply put, the Heels lost their two best defensive players in Terry and Wright. The shot blocking of Wright forced teams to take short jumpers and attack from the perimeter. Terry was a lock down defender who frustrated several high profile players throughout the season.

The schedule for UNC is less challenging than a year ago. Pre-conference, the Heels play Davidson, at Ohio State, and at Kentucky. In conference, UNC plays NC State, Clemson, FSU, and Duke twice. NC State and Duke will likely be the only hurdles in winning the conference title again.

What do we expect from the Tarheels?
We expect another deep run at the NCAA title. The key will be the guard play of Lawson and Ellington, as the Heels must be able to answer teams that manage to slow down Hansbrough.

Written by: Chris
Categories: North Carolina