Tobacco Road Report

TRR watched the Florida Gators dominate the Georgia Bulldogs on Wednesday night in Athens, Georgia, and decided to offer a scouting report for potential ACC foes in March. Before we talk about the scouting report for the Gators, let’s review their conference tempo-free stats.

On offense, the Gators average 1.18 points per possession, while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 59.5%. The Gators turn the ball over at a rate of 19% of their possessions and generate assists on 24% of their possessions. Finally, the Gators rebound 35% of their missed shots. This level of efficiency would put them ahead of the top teams in both the Big 10 and ACC (Wisconsin and UNC).

On the defensive end, the Gators allow 0.97 points per possession, while allowing an effective field goal percentage of 45%. The Gators rebound almost 70% of their opponent misses, and force turnovers on 17% of the opposition’s chances. Defensively, this does not quite match up to the elites in the Big 10 (Ohio State and Wisconsin) or the ACC (UNC and Duke). Florida’s efficiency margin is 0.22 which exceeds all Big 10 teams (OSU is close at 0.20) and equals UNC. The moral is that the tempo-free stats back up what we see. Florida, UNC, Wisconsin, and possibly Ohio State are playing at a higher level than their conference brethren.

Scouting Report:

OFFENSE: When you play the Gators, you must pick your poison when you select a defensive approach. The perimeter players of Brewer, Humphrey, and Green can all hit the three, although Lee Humphrey shoots a stellar .688 from the arc. If you extend to far on the guards, all can take the ball to the rim off the dribble without ball screens. Humphrey is the weakest attacking the basket, but Brewer and Green can finish well around the rim. TRR saw Brewer drive with his left hand, switch the ball to his right in mid-air to avoid a block, and then dunk between two Bulldogs on Wednesday night. We are sure the NBA scouts saw the same thing.

If you pay too much attention to the guards, the post combination of Noah and Horford will exploit you on the box. Both shoot over 60%, although both are suspect from the foul line. The Gators like to spread the floor and isolate the ball to one side with a wing spotted in the corner, a big on the near box, and Green setting up the play. From this set up, the Gators do a variety of options. Green can receive a pick from either big and drive the ball. The ball can be dumped to the post (usually Horford) or Brewer can take his man off the dribble. Florida does not post its guards and keeps this basic set against man pressure.

TRR saw no weakness. Few teams have two bigs that can match Horford and Noah, and Brewer is the most underrated player in the country.

DEFENSE: On the defensive end, the Gators play man almost exclusively. They throw in an occasional 2-3 zone look, but their defense is predicated on ball pressure. Green and Brewer are good on-ball defenders and the post presence of Horford/Noah allows the Gators to play without doubling the post. Against Georgia, Horford was able to guard Georgia star, TK Brown, without help, leaving his teammates on the perimeter shooting down the Georgia 3-point game.

Prognosis:
Give the Gators their due. This is the best team TRR has seen this year and does not doubt that they can repeat. There are not many teams in the country with Florida’s balance on offense (all 5 starters average double-figures) or their athleticism in the paint. If they have any weakness, it is the bench. The Gators go 7 deep with freshman Walter Hodge relieving the backcourt, and Chris Richard relieving the post. A deep team such as UNC could possible cause second half problems against the Gators. A team without depth and athletic post players will be going home early in March.