Tobacco Road Report

And for our last NCAA First Round Preview, we have some thoughts on Duke versus VCU. Will this be the end of the sweet-16 run for the Dukies?

Virginia Commonwealth has become another first round upset darling. VCU is a guard-led team with some upperclass experience. The Rams are coached by former Florida assistant Anthony Grant and play in a Donovan-esque style...trapping defenses and an offense that thrives on creating turnovers. Against the Rams, opponents have turned it over on 24 percent of their possessions. Their pace is average at 65 possessions per game, exactly the same as the Blue Devils. So it's not necessarily about tempo, but about turnovers.

Ahhhh....turnovers. The achilles of the Blue Devils. Duke managed to win 22 games and stay in the upper half of the ACC despite turning the ball over 61 more times than it assisted on made baskets. A putrid assist-to-turnover ratio like this is usually recipie for disaster. But Duke rarely beats itself, as evidenced by their 14-3 record against teams outside the top-50 RPI.

So the rub in this game is simple...there's no need for additional analysis beyond the turnover margin. If VCU can make Paulus and McRoberts turnover machines, which they have been prone to do on occassions since Coach K uses both to break the press, then VCU will be competetive. The Rams won't have much success in their half court offense, but can have success in transition created from turnovers.

Enough turnovers and VCU could make the ESPN highlight reel for years to come. Otherwise, Duke will have a chance to keep their string of sweet-16 appearances alive.