Tobacco Road Report

By Michael

Duke (21-7, 8-6) has managed to right the ship with three straight wins in conference. The Dukies, however, have fallen into a pattern of surging early and tightening late which has allowed their opponents to get back into the game. Last night it was Clemson cutting the deficit to five before falling 71-66. The Tigers have fallen to 5-8 in conference and need to win out against BC, Miami, and Virginia Tech to have a realistic chance for an NCAA bid.

In each of their last three games, Duke has built sizeable leads on their opponents, only to watch these leads evaporate down the stretch. Against Boston College, Duke led 65-43 with 11:53 remaining but only ended up winning by eight. Four days later, the Dukies took a 41-26 halftime lead over Georgia Tech, but stuggled to put the Yellow Jackets away until the closing minutes. And last night, only an over-the-back call prevented Clemson from being one possession away from tying or taking the lead.

In each of these games, Duke has played well on offense early, using aggressive ball movement and multiple picks to create good looks at the basket. DeMarcus Nelson was particularly effective against Clemson, scoring 11 of his 16 points in the first half and keying Duke's 29-8 run over a 12 minute span. His efforts helped Duke double-up Clemson and take a 42-21 lead into the locker room.

In contrast, I thought Clemson played tight, possibly on account of the fact that the Tigers needed this win to say on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament bid. Their shot selection was poor and the offense looked rushed at times.

In the second half however, the Blue Devils were the ones who came out tight while Clemson returned from the locker room with the loose attitude of a team that had nothing left to lose. The motion and multiple screens that created dribble and passing lanes during the first half were absent as Duke's offense stagnated. Some of this was due to Clemson's more aggressive defense and "shoot the gaps" mentality. The Tigers finished with 11 steals and created 15 Duke turnovers.

Along with an advantage on the offensive boards, the turnovers and second chances meant that Clemson actually attempted eleven more field goals than the Blue Devils (55-46), but couldn't overcome the 21 point halftime deficit. Suspect free throw shooting also cost Clemson. Shooting 9-18 from the line left a lot of points on the free throw line that could have put the Tigers over the top.

As of today, the staff of TRR sees six ACC teams receiving tournament bids: UNC, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, and Maryland. Georgia Tech remains a possiblity (especially if the Yellow Jackets close strong and BC continues to fade). We think that time has finally run out on Clemson and FSU; both will need runs in the ACC Conference Tournament to revive their tournament hopes.