Tobacco Road Report

By Chris

The ACC took a commanding lead on night two of the 2006 ACC/Big Ten Challenge and lead 4-2 (see our writeups on Maryland’s win over Illinois here, and Duke’s win over Indiana here). The third and final night of this year’s challenge features a few interesting matchups: Michigan State vs. Boston College, and Ohio State vs. North Carolina. The marquee matchup of OSU vs. UNC could be a preview of a March Madness regional final or perhaps bigger game.

Game 1: Michigan State at Boston College, 7 pm, ESPN

TRR: “Will the real Slim Shady (i.e. Boston College), please stand up!”

Scouting Report: Michigan State
Record: 6-1
Coach: Tom Izzo
Team Leaders:
Points: Drew Neitzel 17.9 ppg
Rebounds: Marquise Gray 5.9 rpg
Assists: Travis Walton 4.7 apg

Most pundits believe that MSU will finish in the top 3 of the Big 10 this season. Tom Izzo and the Spartans will rely on youth this season with the loss of standout players Maurice Ager, Paul Davis, and Shannon Brown. The top returning player is last year’s point guard, Drew Neitzel. Other experienced players include Travis Walton and Marquise Gray. Still, with a coach of Izzo’s skill, MSU is not likely to be in rebuilding mode.

The early season results for MSU show surprising early success. With a new rotation of players, MSU has won 6 of 7 games with a signature win against Texas on a neutral court. The one loss was to the Terrapins of Maryland in the finals of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.

The staple of MSU basketball is defense and offensive rebounding. Izzo’s clubs take pride in the ability to limit opponent opportunities and to get as many shots as possible on the offensive end. Given the bad shooting of some of his previous teams, this is a great philosophy. In fact, you will often hear Izzo refer to the number of field goal attempts as a proxy for his team’s success. The second focus of MSU is to beat you down the floor with an aggressive fast break on missed or made shots. If you like hard-nosed basketball, MSU is a great team to watch.

On the offensive end, MSU will use motion, but has more sets than many Big 10 teams. Izzo is a firm believer of using the post to create ball reversal and his teams will make good use of spacing and the three point line. Neitzel is an accomplished ball handler who can score in a variety of ways.

On the defensive end, MSU will play half-court man-to-man. The keys to this game will be for Boston College to rebound the basketball and to limit fast break baskets for the Spartans. Boston College should have an edge inside against the less experienced Spartan frontcourt.

TRR would like to see Boston College finally play up to potential. MSU blew out the same Vermont club that laid the “smacketh” down on BC opening night. Prediction: Michigan State 62, Boston College 55.

Game 2: Virginia at Purdue, 7:30, ESPN2

TRR: "There’s no place like home…"

Scouting Report: Purdue
Record: 4-1
Coach: Matt Painter
Team Leaders:
Points: Carl Landry 19.6 ppg
Rebounds: Gordon Watt 8.4 rpg
Assists: Keaton Grant 4.8 apg

Purdue may be one of the more improved teams in the country. Last season was a disaster for the Boilermakers as there two star players (Carl Landry and David Teague) were lost to injury before Big 10 play could begin. Throw in a new coach and a young roster and you are left with a bad season. Watching the Boilers last season, TRR noticed the defensive intensity that Painter was able to create for his overmatched squad. This intensity has carried into this season.

The Boilermakers have opened the season 4-1 with quality wins against Oklahoma and DePaul at the Maui Invitation. There one loss was a hard fought game against Georgia Tech. On the offensive end, Purdue will use motion sets with the goal of getting the ball to Carl Landry inside. Landry is an excellent low post scorer with the ability to gain position and hold it. Landry is a willing passer as well and Purdue likes to spot shooters around the perimeter for ball reversals and kickouts.

On the defensive end, Purdue will play TIGHT man to man defense. This is one of the more interesting games of the week because it will depend on a few factors:

• Refereeing. TRR never puts the outcome of the game on the refs, but a tightly called game will go against Purdue. The quick guard play of Virginia will be limited if Purdue is allowed liberties on the defensive end.

• Tempo. Virginia will want to push the ball and take advantage of their superior guard play. Purdue will want to grind out the game and get Landry many looks down low against the suspect post play of UVa.

Prediction: Purdue 70, Virginia 64

Game 3: Iowa at Virginia Tech, 8:00 pm, ESPNU

TRR: “How many people will still be watching this game when OSU-UNC starts at 9?”

Scouting Report: Iowa
Record: 2-3
Coach: Steve Alford
Team Leaders:
Points: Adam Haluska 17.0
Rebounds: Kurt Looby 6.8 rpg
Assists: Tony Freeman 4.8 apg

Iowa is off to a slow start this season with three consecutive losses headed into the challenge. Two of the losses were on a neutral court against worthy opponents, Alabama and Villanova. The Hawkeyes are led by guard, Adam Haluska. Iowa is coming off another moderately successful season with a good run in the Big 10 Tournament and an NCAA appearance.

Steve Alford’s teams play a style similar to vintage Indiana basketball. The offense is constant motion, while the defense plays a strong man-to-man. The Hawkeyes have a relatively young roster and are likely to have growing pains out of the gate. Outside of Haluska, Iowa’s guards are small which may create matchup problems with Virginia Tech’s longer backcourt.

Virginia Tech has been unimpressive so far with losses to Western Michigan and strong mid-major club, Southern Illinois. TRR watched the game with the Salukis and came away with the feeling that Virginia Tech lacked discipline on the defensive end. Iowa will require discipline tonight on the defensive end, but our feeling is that the Hawkeyes are too young to win in this hostile environment. Prediction: Virginia Tech 66, Iowa 59.

Game 4: Ohio State at North Carolina, 9:00 pm, ESPN

TRR: “To be the man, you have to beat the man. WHOO!—Nature Boy Ric Flair”

Scouting Report: The Ohio State University
Record: 6-0
Coach: Thad Matta
Leaders:
Points: Daequan Cook 17.8 ppg
Rebounds: Othello Hunter 7.2 rpg
Assists: Mike Conley, Jr. 6.33 apg

Thad Matta is quickly creating dominant force in the Big 10 by recruiting on a level with UNC and Duke. While Indiana University had a lame duck coach in place, Matta raided the state for its top high school seniors last season. By signing Mike Conley, Jr. and Greg Oden from Indiana along with Daequan Cook from Ohio, Matta has the pieces needed for a deep run in March. Matta is the answer to the often asked question in Southern Indiana, “Who could we have hired if we had just fired Mike Davis earlier?”

The Buckeyes are off to a solid start against mid-level competition. They have yet to leave the state of Ohio for a game, so an appearance in the Dean Dome will likely cause some early game difficulties. The key for their success will likely be how well Conley, Jr. handles the point, and can Othello Hunter slow down Tyler Hansbrough.

TRR believes this will likely be the first of two matchups between these schools this season as TRR expects a final 8 or better run for each club. The only disappointing fact about this matchup is that Greg Oden will not play for Ohio State. Still covering from an off-season injury, Oden will likely not return until the start of the Big 10 season. At 7 feet, Oden will be a game changer on the level of Shaq at LSU. Combined with the explosiveness of Cook and Conley, OSU should win the Big 10 conference handily. This game could feature more future NBA first round picks than any other college matchup this season.

Given Oden’s status, OSU’s best days are ahead, and TRR feels the homecourt edge will be enough for the Tar Heels to get the job done.

Sure-fire Prediction: We put the over/under on Dickie V saying “diaper dandy” at 60.

Prediction: UNC 86, OSU 78

Game 5: Clemson at Minnesota, 9:30 pm, ESPN2

TRR: “Is Minnesota that bad?”

Scouting Report: Minnesota
Record: 2-3
Coach: Dan Monson
Points: Lawrence McKenzie 16.6 ppg
Rebounds: Spencer Tollackson 7.5 rpg
Assists: Kevin Payton 3.2 apg

TRR was flipping through the channels over the weekend and saw a few minutes of the Minnesota vs. Southern Illinois game. TRR then spent a few minutes trying to determine if the pain in its stomach was from too much turkey or having to watch the Golden Gophers play basketball. The Gophers have lost three games in a row and TRR predicts many more will follow.

The Gophers are primarily struggling as they adjust to life without team leaders, Adam Boone and Vincent Grier. Replacing Boone’s leadership and Grier’s dynamic play will be a challenge, and TRR is not sure Monson has the pieces on the roster to get it done this season.

On the other hand, Clemson has feasted on low level competition for the first few weeks of the season, so TRR is not convinced that the Tigers are any better than we predicted. A win at “The Barn” would make a statement and we believe the Tigers are up to the challenge. Prediction: Clemson 55, Minnesota 49.