Tobacco Road Report

By Chris

The Tuesday Night Games. The second night of the challenge features two outstanding games, Maryland vs. Illinois and Indiana vs. Duke. The night also features a few games that are not so appealing, but will determine the conference champion of this year’s event.

Game 1: Maryland at Illinois, 7:00 pm, ESPN

TRR: “Win here and TRR will begin to “Fear the Turtle” or maybe at least respect the turtle…”

Scouting Report: Illinois
Record: 7-0
Coach: Bruce Weber
Team Leaders:
Points: Jamar Smith 16.5 ppg
Rebounds: Shaun Pruitt 7.0 rpg
Assists: Chester Frazier 7.0 apg

Illinois is predicted to finish second in the Big 10 this season with a strong nucleus of players returning. The team has opened with a 7-0 record against inferior competition. The quality win was on a neutral court against Bradley. Maryland will represent their first real test of the season.

Illinois will feature a balanced offensive attack with six players averaging double figures at this point in the season. Weber uses a variation on the motion offense with high ball screens and roll outs to the perimeter by the post players. The Illini have quick guards that can penetrate to the basket and athletic frontcourt players that can hit spot up jump shots at distance.

The Illini play an aggressive man to man defense with Brain Randle their defensive stopper. He draws the assignment of the top scoring guard for the opposition, so look for him to play D.J. Strawberry for extended minutes on Tuesday night.

The strength of the Illini is guard play, so the key for this game will be who dominates the matchups between the youthful backcourts for each team.

In the end, TRR sees homecourt as the decisive edge in a close contest. Prediction: Illinois 76, Maryland 68.

Game 2: Florida State at Wisconsin, 7:30 pm, ESPN2

TRR: “Can Florida State finally get a signature win on the road?”

Scouting Report: Wisconsin
Record: 5-1
Coach: Bo Ryan
Team Leaders:
Points: Alando Tucker 20.2 ppg
Rebounds: Joe Krabbenhoft 6.3 rpg
Assists: Michael Flowers 3.7 apg

Wisconsin is the consensus pick by the writers to win the Big 10 conference this season. Wisconsin is your typical lunch-pail team from the Big 10 that features a great team defensive concept, solid coaching by the underrated Bo Ryan, and a standout scorer in Alando Tucker. Wisconsin is 5-1 at this point in the season with 5 wins over weak teams and their one loss against Missouri State on a neutral court.

Wisconsin will run motion as most Big 10 teams employ with an emphasis on creating space for Tucker. Tucker is a slashing player who is strong with the ball and very effective at finishing in the lane. Wisconsin will invert the offense with the bigs spotting up on the perimeter and Tucker posting in the lane as part of their sets.

Wisconsin likes to grind out basketball games with patience on offensive and a solid man-to-man defense. To beat them, you must outwork them on the boards and close out well on the perimeter. The Kohl Center is also a significant homecourt advantage for the Badgers.

TRR will enjoy watching the matchup of top offensive players, Al Thornton and Alando Tucker. Wisconsin has too many experienced pieces to compliment Tucker and is our pick to win the matchup. Prediction: Wisconsin 69, Florida State 60.

Game 3: Penn State vs. Georgia Tech, 8:00 ESPNU

TRR: “And you thought Stony Brook was tough competition, PSU….”

Scouting Report: Penn State
Record: 4-1
Coach: Ed DeChellis
Team Leaders:
Points: Jamelle Cornley 15.2 ppg
Rebounds: Jamelle Cornley 9.0 rpg
Assists: Ben Luber 4.8 apg

Penn State is a consensus pick by writers to finish in the bottom two of the conference this season with the other perennial doormat, Northwestern. Penn State is a well-coached team, but is currently at a talent disadvantage against other Big 10 powers. Their season is off to a decent start with a victory over Bucknell, but a confusing loss to Stony Brook.

Penn State will focus the offense around solid post player, Jamelle Cornley. DeChellis plays more zone than most of his Big 10 peers to make up for a size and athletic gap inside.

TRR will enjoy watching this game as this writer is a Tech fan. TRR will look to see if the ball handling of GTech has improved since Maui, and expects a coming out performance for Thaddeus Young. This should be a blowout. Prediction: Georgia Tech 90, Penn State 63.

Game 4: Indiana vs. Duke, 9:00 ESPN

TRR: “ A young team versus a team with a new coach. Who will make fewer mistakes?”

Scouting Report: Indiana
Record: 3-1
Coach: Kelvin Sampson
Team Leaders:
Points: Rod Wilmont 14.3 ppg
Rebounds: DJ White 7.3 rpg
Assists: Armon Bassett 4.25 apg

Indiana is a consensus pick by Big 10 writers to finish in the second tier of the conference (3-6th place). Kelvin Sampson has inherited a team lacking toughness and in some regards, fundamentals, so playing at Cameron Indoor Stadium will be a difficult task for the Hoosiers.

Indiana has opened the season at 3-1. Indiana played in the NIT tourney but was eliminate in the second round by eventual champion, Butler. Early signs indicate that Sampson’s style of play is being embraced by the team (but not by the officials as the points of emphasis have put D.J. White on the bench for significant periods of time).

Indiana will play aggressive man-to-man defense with an emphasis on limiting ball reversals on the perimeter. Indiana is not exceptionally quick on either end of the floor. On offense, Sampson runs a limited motion offense with the point guard initiating the offense with a pick from the 4 or 5 man. The key to their performance starts with DJ White. Coming off a broken foot that ended his 2005 season in December, White is slowly rounding into form.

The contest with Duke will be the marquee matchup for this Big 10 challenge, as the teams have not met since Indiana knocked off Duke in the Sweet 16 in 2002.

For Indiana to have a chance in this game, it must win several matchups. DJ White must dominate on the offensive end. He will probably draw Brian Zoubek on both ends. Second, Juco transfer Lance Stemler must limit Josh McRoberts on the defensive end, and pull him away from the basket and weak side help for Zoubek on the offensive end. Stemler must knock down his 3 point shots to give White room to operate. Finally, the point guards for Indiana (Calloway/Basset) must value the basketball. Indiana has averaged 18.5 turnovers per game.

TRR is not convinced that IU can accomplish these goals in college hoops most hostile environment. Prediction: Duke 70, Indiana 67

Game 5: Miami vs. Northwestern, ESPN 2, 9:30 pm

TRR: “They are actually going to televise this game?”

Scouting Report: Northwestern
Record: 3-2
Coach: Bill Carmody
Team Leaders:
Points: Tim Doyle 11.6 ppg
Rebounds: Tim Doyle 4.8 rpg
Assists: Tim Doyle 5.8 apg

Northwestern is a consensus pick to battle Penn State for 11th place in the conference this season. Bill Carmody is a good coach, but he lacks the horses to compete in the Big 10, MVC, Big East, Hawaiian Juco League, or any other league for that matter. Northwestern can be a good home court for the Wildcats, so this could be an interesting game.

Northwestern has opened the season at 3-1, which includes a recent epic 40-39 win over North Florida (Mothers, cover the eyes of your children!). The quality win was over DePaul, but Miami will probably be the toughest test yet.

Northwestern runs a variation of the Princeton motion offense. The ball is passed to the elbow and cutters run a series of backcuts with high screens. For the basketball purist, this offense is fun to watch. It uses a good portion of the shot clock and slows the game down. Teams that lack patience have fallen victim to Northwestern’s style.

On the defensive end, Carmody’s team will play a mix of defenses, but has found success with a trapping variation of the 3-2/1-3-1 zone. Teams that move the ball well will have success. Teams that rush shots can face difficulties by not making the extra pass.

Miami is young at the guard position and this will cause problems for the Hurricanes on Tuesday night. Miami was soundly handled at the American Youth Classic over Thanksgiving week by solid mid-major clubs, so this may be the game to put the Big 10 up in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. Prediction: Northwestern 51, Miami 42.